Interesting Article

I just read a very interesting article on the Fox News Forum by James Pinkerton.  The gist of the article is that whomever is elected as the 44th President brings Arnold Schwarzenegger aboard as the newly created position of Energy and Environment Czar.

Rick

Just sent to Obama and McCain campaigns

Excuse me a moment, Obama Campaign staffers, and McCain campaign staffers. I know that nothing I write can get anywhere close to either candidate before passing through several levels of staff, so I am addressing this to you, the worker who will read it for the first time. It does get a bit wordy, I apologize for that, but I have made it as brief as I can without sacrificing the point.

I am asking both candidates to respond to the following question. If you are elected, and re-elected, at the time you leave office after 8 years, please give me your best estimate of the following statistics:

Percentage of our oil we are importing (1973 = 35%, 2008 = 60%+)

Percentage of our energy derived from renewable sources (1973 8.4%, 2007 7% (year end, latest figures I have found, so far))

Price we will have to pay to put one gallon of gas in our car (we all know how ugly that number is today)

I will decide my vote based on the responses to this request. I can see several possible outcomes:

Neither candidate responds – I will understand that politics as normal is the rule of the day. I will also conclude that neither candidate has a solid grasp on the significance of our energy crisis, and has no solid plan to solve it.

I get a response from one or both campaigns, whether directly, or through listening to the campaign hype. Any candidate able to communicate an response, no matter what their vehicle, will get one “Atta Candidate”,¹ or AC for short. added to their account.

I will be listening to all of the hype, and once that first AC is earned, further ACs may be earned your ability to convince me that you know what you are talking about, and/or, that you are indeed committed to eliminating our oil imports as fast as reasonably possible.

My vote will go to whomever has the most ACs when I cast my vote.

A word of warning, however, don’t be setting off my Energy BS Detector. I have some experience in the energy industry, worked in it for more than 30 years. Not only in the industry, my specialty was Procurement. I have been trained in BS detection by some of the best around, including some senior level staff from Bechtel. My experience, combined with the wealth of statistical information published by the Department of Energy, give me a pretty well developed ability to spot weaknesses, and of course, outright mis-statements of fact. An outright lie will automatically trigger a Full BS Alert (FBSA), which resets the AC score to negative 5. I may also issue lesser BS1s, BS2s, or BS3s, (each reducing your score of ACs by that number) for lesser instances, at my sole discretion.

Considering the profound role Energy plays in our current crises, I have decided to focus my efforts on this arena. I will apply your net AC/BS score to all of the issues, and vote based on that score. If you’re BS’ing me on Energy, I will assume you are BS’ing me everywhere. Accumulating ACs on Energy subject, an area I understand, also increases your credibility on the rest of the issues, where matters are not so simple to define. Convince me you have the best plan, and the commitment to stay with it, I will trust you with it all.

Good luck on the campaign, I know it will be entertaining. With my BS Detector by my side, I will be able to appreciate the entertainment value far more this time. And, I believe, better meet my responsibility to the United States of America by casting the most carefully and accurately considered vote of my life. This is as it should be. The issues our vote will decide this time are at least as important as any in my 41 years of being able to vote, perhaps, as I personally believe, even more so. I owe this much to my country, along with an apology for taking so long to figure it out.

1. “Atta Candidate” or “AC” comes from the old fashioned American slang term of “Atta Boy” but modified for political correctness.

Rick Olson

US Citizen retired and living in Thailand

Found some Great Info

And some not so great, sigh.  More about the not so great, later.  While researching to verify Fox New’s statement that oil imports for 1973 were 35%, I ran across a good article at the Wiki on the 1973 Oil Crisis.  Fascinating article, lots of details I had forgotten about.  How many of us remember what initiated that first Oil Crisis?  I didn’t.

The 1973 oil crisis began on October 17, 1973, when the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced, as a result of the ongoing Yom Kippur War, that they would no longer ship oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt (the United States, its allies in Western Europe, and Japan).

There is also a fascinating chart right beneath that opening statement of the article, showing the price history of oil from 1861 through 2007.  Wow, the spike now is almost as big as the spike of 1973 and 1979 combined.  The price of oil did not pass $40 per barrel until sometime after 2001, I can’t tell exactly from the chart.  Even when historical prices are adjusted for inflation into 2007 dollars, we only crossed $40 one time, at the end of the run up from the 1979 crisis.  Today it is $140 plus.  The cost of crude has more than trippled in less than 7 years.  Mind boggling.

I have not yet read it all, but also looks a very good source of accurate facts to help explain how we got here from where we were in 1973.  Be careful if you read it, the data does tend to lead you to some rather disturbing conclusions.  Have a look, the link is above.

I will write a separate piece on the not so good information later, but don’t want to let this much to wait.  The other issue is one source that is giving data in a very confusing way.  Whether deliberate or accidental, it sure does present golden opportunities to distort the data.  I need to do some more homework on that one.

Misinformation, hype, emotional arguments are all on the agenda for an article on how much they are hurting us in trying to solve the energy issues, so I will wait till I have that one finished and use it there, it will be a good example.

I have added the Required Reading tag to this article.

Rix

Found a Problem, a couple actually

The biggest problem I found applies equally to both candidates, that is an abundance of well written words, with a severe shortage of facts, and to total void of footnoted facts.  Both espouse doing great things, but neither tells specifically how much energy that will save, or produce, or how much it will reduce the cost.  Neither of them tie it all together and show me how this will lead to energy independence in 20 or 30 years.  Sorry to say, but after listening to similar nice words for 35 years and finding ourselves again in a crisis, I must insist on the facts to back up proposals.

Here is a specific problem.  Obama says this:

Obama’s plan will reduce oil consumption by at least 35 percent, or 10 million barrels per day, by 2030. This will more than offset the equivalent of the oil we would import from OPEC nations in 2030.

But Fox News says this:

During the oil embargo in 1973, we got only 35 percent of our oil from foreign sources. By 1995, we were up to 45 percent. And so far this year, we are getting 61 percent of our oil from foreign sources.

By those numbers, reducing our oil imports by 35% by 2030 as Obama proposes will still leave us importing a greater portion of our oil than we did in 1973.  A 35% reduction will not get us there, unless Fox News is lying.  Somebody is blowing smoke at us, which one.  I’m going to find out, I am going to spend the time and find the facts from reputable sources and I’ll show you what I find. And I will tell you how long it takes to find them.  Care to guess??

Rix

Rix

Open Letter to Obama and McCain

I have just sent the following to both the Obama and McCain websites, up to them if and how they respond.

Open Letter to Obama and McCain

Gentlemen: In my humble opinion, you have both let us citizens down terribly. 35 years after the first time the price of oil more than doubled, we are importing even more of our oil than we were then. That is shameful. You, and your contemporaries in politics for these past years, have proven to me that I cannot trust you to give me straight facts, come up with real, workable solutions. Shame on you. And shame on me. I and my contemporaries over the past 35 years have allowed you to get away with it. And what I have seen so far from both of you in this current evolution of the energy crisis is – business as usual, more hype, more emotional arguments, more of the same. As Col. Potter used to say on Mash, horse hockey. We need some answers and we need them NOW.

That’s enough for me, I am going to do what I can to force you to deal with the issues honestly and sincerely. I have launched a campaign to first, establish Energy Independence as a national priority and national goal, somewhat along the lines of what President Kennedy did on going to the moon. I don’t have the clout of Kennedy, obviously, but through the internet, perhaps I can muster the support I need. I think I can. My campaign has been launched at my blog Uncrossing the Wires, a blog jointly owned by my conservative self and my liberal daughter. You will see a copy of this letter posted there.

I believe that if one of you were to stand up and pronounce your agreement with Energy Independence as a national priority, you would win the election hands down. We are fed up with it, we don’t like paying through the nose for gasoline. And we are tired of being fed emotionally charged hype, created for the sole purpose of convincing us to vote for you. You want me to vote for you? Give me facts, try to eliminate emotion from the issues, or at least reduce it as far as possible. You know well that our judgement suffers when emotions are aroused, and you use that against us. So stop it. I don’t have time to listen to you two and your huge propaganda machines try convince me to vote for you, but I will listen to factual presentations your positions on energy. Oh yes, and I will be holding you accountable to do what you promise to do.

Maybe I am just a silly old man operating in my own fantasyland believing that the overwhelming majority of the voters will agree with me on this. But maybe not, time will tell. But if I have my way, as candidates for the highest office in the nation, you will be judged by the voters to a higher standard. Your positions will be considered against the reality of the last 35 years efforts on energy. Good luck, may the best candidate win.

Rick

Citizen of the United States of America, retired and living in Thailand (where the cost of living is far far less)

We Are In A Mess

We are in a mess. Our economy is very shakey, some say recession, so say not, but all say it is not good. Our lovely sub prime mortage mess gave us a nice nudge causing us to slide a fair amount. Doubling the price of gasoline in a short time certainly did not help matters, and that will ripple out in price increases in so many directions. Don’t forget to factor in the flooding in the Midwest, our fall harvest is not going to be too great, to say the least. That has already driven up the price of corn, some portion of which is used to produce ethanol.

In my opinion, the economic situation is of a scale that it becomes a top national security concern. And to me, that is a very significant step. Again in my opinion, national security is always number 1 – if we don’t exist, it doesn’t matter.

The question of the day, what do we do? For starters, we recognize that our two biggest, most immediate issues, national security and the economy, are both tied to Oil. If we can solve that, we can have a much much better environment to live in. Yeah, lofty goal, world peace. But ponder seriously for a moment, what if we were energy independent, did not need to import one barrel from anyone. All of a sudden the middle east becomes far less important to us. Instead of trying to function in the area as a desperate customer of oil, we can function as a world power trying to do what is best for the world. The oil exporters will still export their oil, but the demand will be cut to ribbons by our independence. China and India are eagerly importing ever increasing amounts of oil, however, if we are no longer buying oil, I cannot reasonably see the price increasing dramatically again, and it could well come down.

That was one of my prognostications, here, look at the definition here. I am not claiming to be a genius, but when I look at the evidence, the preceding paragraph certainly seems a realistic outcome to me. But I have to admit, there are lots and lots of unproven assumptions that I am using to reach my conclusion. They are unproven because I have been unable thus far to find the answers. Doing the research is tedious. Shoot, our politician’s don’t bother to cite their sources, nor does the media. Fox News said in 1973 we were importing 35% of our oil, today we are importing 60%.

I have been led to believe that we have enough resources in ANWR, off shore areas, oil shale, coal and nuclear to be able to become energy independent, in a relatively short time, 10 years’ish. But there’s the hitch, you will note I said that I had been led to believe, I did not say I know for a fact. How many of you would have to say the same thing about your pretty solid beliefs on energy issues. My beliefs are based on the information I pick up along life’s way, same as for all of us. My primary source of news is Fox News. I think they are pretty good, but nope, I have never put them to a rigorous test. I think it is time that I do so. I think it is time that we all put all of our sources of information to some rigourous testing.

There is a whole slew of rhetoric flying around out there, let’s call it what it is, propaganda, and it is coming at us from all sides. Much of it, far far too much of it is coming at us in an emotionally charged way. We see the pundits, two liberal and two conservative, sit down in their four little boxes, and argue it out, often times complete with shouting matches. And that touches our emotions, and as soon as emotions are touched, our judgment skills begin declining. That is what ‘the establishment’ is feeding us, and it’s a bunch of BS. It inhibits our ability to make solid decisions.

We have 35 years of history fighting this very same issue, and we have done a lot, a whole lot, more than any of us can remember. Let’s work at remembering it, and looking at it, what did we try, and how did it work? Let’s put together a time line, gather the story in some sort of logical manner so we can all understand how we got to where we are right now. That will take a lot of time, but we can start with the big hitters to increase production, drilling in ANWR and/or off shore and nuclear for example, as well as ways to meet our energy needs in other ways, such as alternative fuels, solar, nuclear, any source, let’s be creative. But somehow we have to get to energy independence. In my opinion, this is the single most important issue facing us today, by far.

I am soliciting help. I will do as much as I can, but I will need help from a bunch of people, the more the merrier. This will be a major undertaking that will require a huge amount of effort. But if we can all get together, share our ideas, our knowledge and our resources, we can do it. We can create a factual history of or efforts on the energy crisis. The project will take time, and we are all busy, even me though I am retired. But if we all pitch in what we can, maybe one week a half hour, maybe as much as 2 or 3 the next, or whatever. Let’s all try to put some effort into it. I am going to try requesting help from media, business, and political sources, maybe we can convince one, or hopefully both, campaigns to help supply the facts, documented of course.

It is time to truly think outside the box on solving this problem. If you want to help answer the questions, and figure out what questions to ask, then post a response. I hope I can find a few enthusiastic people to jump in right away and figure out how to set it all up. I have some ideas, but hey, I’m just one person.

The Solution Is So Clear

Energy Independence. Oil is a major player in our most serious issues, the issues which will shape the future of our nation, and indeed the world. That is a fact that will remain unchanged until we no longer need to beg for oil on the world market.

It is absolutely shameful of our leaders to allow us to get into this mess. We had our first taste 35 years ago, and since then we have have been scurrying about trying a great many things, encouraging alternative, discouraging known/viable sources, and although we have made progress in many areas, we still have a mess. According to Fox News in 1973 we were importing 35% of our oil, today we are importing 60%. That is going the wrong direction. Look at our situation today, now ask what it would be like if oil goes to $300 a barrel. I don’t think anyone would be so foolish as to try to convince us that $300 a barrel is totally unrealistic.

I have been led to believe that between off shore, ANWR, shale, we could produce enough to meet all of our needs. Well, that is what I think they are trying to say. Let’s be definitive, let us establish Energy Independence as a national goal. And let’s work at it even harder than we did when President Kennedy established landing on the moon as a national goal. Energy Independence is at least as important to our future, I believe much more so.

Our leaders have failed us, so it looks like we will have to do some sorting out on our own, including establishing Energy Independence as a national goal. Let’s put every option on the table, look at the facts, figure out how they best fit into the mix. We need to consider environmental impact absolutely. We need to evaluate based on overall risk, including risk to the environment.

I need to make a very important point. I cited Fox News for some stats before, and though I can show you where they said it (assuming they have the show available online), but regardless, I do not trust them. I am afraid they are pretty close, but this is an important issue, I am not about to accept Fox News, or any news organization’s word on it. The data should be relatively easy to prove/disprove from reliable documented sources. That is what we need to accumulate upon which to make our decisions, the true facts, not the flights of fantasy we have been fed for 35 years.

We need to be realistic. One reality is that we consume one heck of a lot of oil, and we need to cut that back. We have been trying for 35 years. What have we learned? Obama wants to do a windfall profits tax, and I heard a republican suggesting we roll back the speed limit to 55 again. Hmmm, been there done that on both scores. Is that the best they can come up with? This is truly mind boggling to me why neither of the two candidates for President have come forward and declared Energy Independence as a national goal. Well, let’s do it for them. Let’s set it as a national goal, and let’s do it by letting our candidates know. If enough of us demand it, they will have no choice. And that will allow the election to better focus on the issues.

Here is the hard part, we must force both sides to give us the cold facts, enough of the emotional diatribe and political games. Give us the facts, prove to us you know what you are talking about. Let’s create a place on the internet where together, we can capture the facts, and keep them together, give it an honest evaluation. We can have a place to list the questions we want answers to, then go out and find them. Kind of like a wiki for Energy Independence. As a matter of fact, I will submit the idea to them, their format would work well.

History has so eloquently what we can expect if we trust our politicians, media, business, the leaders of our society to decide. Let’s cut through the hype and look at the cold facts. I am sure that we will all be surprised in some ways, some of our ideas will be proven to be wrong, or not the best for today. I think it is time for all of us to put our beliefs to the test, let’s start with a clean page and examine the facts, decide where to get our energy from for the next 20 or 30 years. Or as long as we need to until we get to the point where energy is no longer a factor, we have more than we need. I honestly believe, that we will not get to that point if we don’t do the right things now.

I am on a quest, and I am asking for help. I am going to send this to a great many people, it will take some time to compile my mailing lists. It is first going to the blog, the one my daughter and I have. Then I will be sending it around trying to enlist support and help in the quest. A huge task done alone, but together, I am sure we can do it.

Rix Kix

O’Reilly Interviews Hillary

Have you seen this interview, it is, imho, excellent. Two arch rivals politically squaring off. I consider this interview to be required reading and/or viewing for all of us, she does lay out her positions clearly. Here are links to the texts of the sessions making up the interview with Hillary:

Day one, sessions 1 and 2: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353759,00.html

Day two, sessions 3 and 4: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,354028,00.html

Bill will be having a similar interview with McCain this week, I will be watching it for sure. I do hope Obama accepts the invitation and does the same.